POTASSIUM FERTILIZER

Alexander Lukashenko proposed to cut potash production by 10% in coordination with Russian fertilizer

producers in order to increase market prices. “Maybe we should talk to the Russians, negotiate and

reduce potash production by 10 or 11 percent,” Lukashenko said Monday at a meeting with Andrey

Rybakov, the new chief executive of Belarusian Potash Corp, the country’s largest potash company.

According to the USGS (United States Geological Survey) statistics, in 2023, the global proved potash

salt reserves are greater than 3.6 billion tons (excluding Dead Sea resources, equivalent to potassium

oxide), of which Belarus and Russia ranked second and third respectively, accounting for 20.8% and

18.1% of the global total, accounting for about 39%. Due to the high concentration of production

capacity in the potash industry and the obvious oligopoly, Russia and Belarus, as the world’s major

potash producers, will increase the risk and uncertainty of the global potash market once the production

is cut, making the global potash market supply tight, and then push up the price of potash. In addition, as

global potash prices rise, traders and downstream enterprises may reserve potash in advance, which will

further exacerbate the trend of rising prices