In the third quarter, affected by the domestic and export demand increase, rising raw material prices, international price transmission, the domestic production costs of phosphate fertilizer and market prices rose to a certain extent. However, with domestic fertilizer enterprises to go all out to ensure adequate supply of fertilizer, the current domestic supply of phosphate fertilizer is basically the same as the previous year, the market is in an orderly manner, supply and demand contradictions effectively alleviated. In October, the Autumn market , some enterprises began to be in preparation for the winter storage, how is the demand for the market? Where will the market go?

MAP market at the high end

The third quarter of the MAP price is overall high. in July, the domestic MAP market prices rose again, the mainstream areas of the offer rose in the range of 100 ~ 250 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the month, with the autumn fertilizer preparation slowly into the market, the market turnover is better,the bottom-up policy gradually cancelled. At the same time, raw materials ammonia, sulfur prices rose slightly, the cost side to form a certain support. Driven by the market trading atmosphere, the production enterprise inventory pressure gradually weakened, around the offer one after another. Into the second half of July, the cost support further strengthened, the market demand continues, the enterprise pre-collection increased one after another, Central China, Southwest part of the manufacturers have resumed production. In the urea price hike as well as downstream demand, the price of MAP pushed up again.

In August, the domestic MAP market as a whole showed the state of tight prices. Cost, with the raw material prices continue to go up, in terms of cost to give a strong support for ammonium, the market offer then rose, the enterprise bullish willingness is obvious. Supply and demand, the majority of manufacturers to be issued more orders, in the suspension of the offer or a limited number of orders, the market atmosphere is good. The market can be circulated sources are relatively tight, part of the enterprise device overhaul, the market is tight, low-end sources of goods continue to reduce, a round of ammonium prices ushered in a new round of upward price trend is firm.

In September, the price of ammonium market first rose and then depressed, finishing operation is mainly. At the beginning of the month, due to the enterprise to be issued enough, the cost continued to rise, as well as the downstream just demand still exists in the favourable support, MAP prices continued to rise. Later, affected by high prices, downstream purchasing enthusiasm turned weak, traders fear of heights aggravated, the market overall trading atmosphere is relatively cautious, the enterprise pre-received orders to reduce the part of the enterprise small downward adjustment of the offer, the price fell back slightly. However, due to a small amount of enterprise inventory, downstream autumn fertilizer demand still exists, coupled with the cost of raw materials to give some support, ammonium prices downward adjustment is limited, the market finishing operation.

DAP shows upward trend

DAP prices in the third quarter showed an overall upward trend. in July, the overall market demand was weak in the early period, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was flat, the price change trend is not big. At the end of the month, with raw materials such as sulfur, ammonia and other raw material prices continue to rise, coupled with the international market is higher than expected, the price of urea is also in the cost side and the international price side of the two sides of the favourable substantial growth, driven by the DAP market confidence, the price of DAP at the end of the month there is a certain amount of growth.

In August, the DAP market prices rose more obviously. Cost, raw materials synthetic ammonia, phosphate rock prices continue to rise, the raw material side of the support to strengthen, DAP prices continue to lift. Supply and demand, by the international Bangladesh bidding prices higher, the domestic market atmosphere greatly boosted, prices began to appear obvious upward trend. Coupled with the autumn domestic demand for DAP, and the domestic can be circulated sources of tension, traders selling mood began to appear, support DAP prices. But as prices continue to go up, the downstream part of the buyers buy cautiously, DAP prices to maintain a stable and slightly upward mainly.

In September, the DAP market price finishing operation, enterprises more than the implementation of the previous to be sent, part of the new order. At the beginning of the month, the downstream just demand to follow up, enterprises more implementation of the domestic and export pre-receipts, enterprises to be sent enough, many suspended collection or limited collection. At the same time, the domestic supply of goods is tight, favourable support market, DAP market firm run. late September, with the gradual reduction of enterprises to be sent, the market arrivals increased, the enterprise’s shipping enthusiasm began to improve, but the downstream purchasing enthusiasm began to turn pale, a small amount of end demand to follow up, the market trading atmosphere is weaker, part of the area of the ex-factory prices were slightly reduced. But the cost side, raw material sulfur, ammonia prices rose, the market has a certain support, the price downward adjustment is limited, the market overall is still at a high level.

The market is mainly stable

On the supply side, since September, in response to the domestic spot tightness, phosphate fertilizer industry to play the big picture awareness, go all out to protect domestic supply and food security. Among them, the cumulative output of MAP in January-September 2023 was 7,626,200 tonnes, an increase of 0.83 million tonnes over the same period last year, an increase of 0.11% year-on-year; the cumulative output of DAP was 10,508,700 tonnes, an increase of 930,700 tonnes over the same period last year, an increase of 9.72% year-on-year.